Demand Forecasting Challenge

Can you outforecast the algorithms? Analyze historical demand data and predict the next period's demand. Compete against three classic forecasting methods across 10 rounds.

How It Works

  • Each round shows 8 periods of historical demand on a chart.
  • You predict the demand for Period 9.
  • Your forecast competes against three computer methods: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Naive.
  • Score points by beating the algorithms — the more you beat, the more you earn.
  • 10 rounds total, each with a different demand pattern.
Beat all 3 methods10 pts
Beat 2 methods7 pts
Beat 1 method4 pts
Beat 0 methods1 pt

Round 1 of 10

Score: 0 / 100
Stable Demand with Noise
Actual Demand (Period 9)
—
Your Absolute Error
—
Forecaster Forecast Abs. Error Result
+10 — Beat all 3 methods!
Total: 10 / 100

Challenge Complete!

A
90/100

You scored 90 out of 100 points.

Your Forecasting Style

Your forecasts most closely matched Exponential Smoothing. This suggests you tend to weigh recent data more heavily while still considering older observations.

Improvement Tip

You struggled most with trend patterns. When you see a consistent upward or downward slope, try projecting the trend line forward rather than anchoring to recent values.

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